It seems like you and other AIs are bad Bayesians. When presented with counterevidence, you should move toward or against the presenter with roughly equal probability. It depends on whether the ...

Researchers, I just uploaded a prominent QJE paper on climate change economics to @RefineDotInk and I loaded my critique of the paper. I asked the AI to offer an impartial verdict. I will make this ...

Here is notice from Yale, and from Paul Krugman, he was one of the true greats.  For the pointer I thank several MR readers.

Education is widely recognized as the primary driver of human capital accumulation. However, policies designed to promote educational attainment often overlook students’ endogenous responses. This ...

This paper shows retailers increase prices in response to organized retail crime. We match store-level crime data to scanner data from the universe of transactions for cannabis retailers in Washington ...

AI issues its judgment: 138 papers audited 2,035 problems found 147 serious enough to change a headline number 69% of papers have at least one 97% of major and moderate errors with a clear direction ...

I use LLMs to forecast treatment effects of research studies pre-registered on the AEA RCT Registry and the Open Science Framework. I focus on studies whose results were first publicly released in ...

From the Archives-written by ChatGPT. Both became dramatically more confident in AI’s capabilities while remaining optimistic about its economic potential. Their differences concern how benefits ...

No surprise to me but a new paper looks at the forecast accuracy of over one million prediction questions from Polymarket, ...

Scott Carlson did the work (gated, but free with registration), here is one excerpt: Cowen: …Another proposal I’ve made is that schools should let people do one class, only one class, AI-only — no ...

The organ procurement system has long been a miasma of inefficient monopoly providers. In 2024 I quoted some shocking facts from a great Statecraft interview with Jennifer Erickson and Greg Segal: ...

Emily Bazelon was the moderator, there were five of us in the symposium.  Excerpt from me: Bores: Do you think the federal government pre-empting the states is consistent with democracy? Cowen: ...